Sunday, 23 April 2017

Macron will be President of France


French exit poll result:

Macron - 23%
Le Pen - 23%
Fillon - 19%
Melenchon - 19%

The Gaullist Fillon might have been a good President, despite the corruption allegations. Macron will do less well against Marine Le Pen than Fillon, so she will be happy to meet him in the second round. Nevertheless I am sure that Macron will be President.

He will be another Trudeau. Possibly another Hollande.

And bad news for Britain in the Brexit negotiations.

Hamon of the Socialists and Fillon both conceded defeat quickly. They called on the French to vote for Macron against Marine Le Pen.

A lightning Ipsos poll of second round voting intentions sees Macron beating Le Pen by 62%-38%. That would be twice the score her father achieved 15 years ago. (Mais où sont les neiges d'antan!)

The campaign is a further reminder that there is no such thing as 'European politics'. 

There is no European demos. Therefore only a Europe of nations, as De Gaulle wanted, can be democratic. The whole project that started in the early 90s to deepen Europe before it became necessary to widen it to include Eastern Europe has been a huge mistake.

I do not think Marine Le Pen ever stood much of a chance or even wanted to win this time. Her thoughts are fixed on the next presidential election.

I wonder if de Gaulle, were he alive, might vote for Marine Le Pen, judging by his views on the dangers of too many Arabs in France.


  1. An old joke involves the man who inquires at the front desk of the British Library for a copy of the French constitution. His interlocutor looks down at him sniffily and says, "I'm sorry sir, we don't stock periodicals".

  2. The EU has achieved peace so far, among its member states. Is this worth the cost of all the bad things that come with it? (Increased bureaucracy, less freedom, more porous borders, etc.) I am not fit to answer this, but I think stability and peace among European nations is a good thing, and I am not sure Le Pen would be able to implement enough good measures to make up for leaving the EU.